Quantum Computing Cybersecurity Risks to Small and Medium Manufacturers

Copyright 2025: Forward Edge-AI, Inc.

Whitepaper White Paper

Small and medium-sized manufacturers (SMMs)—the backbone of America’s industrial engine—are now on the frontlines of a cybersecurity crisis that is rapidly escalating due to advances in quantum computing. The convergence of Industry 4.0, cyber-physical systems, and AI-enabled digital supply chains has greatly expanded the attack surface across U.S. manufacturing. As cybercriminals, nation-states, and advanced persistent threats (APTs) increasingly exploit vulnerabilities in operational technology (OT) networks, the looming arrival of cryptanalytically relevant quantum computers (CRQCs) introduces an existential threat: the ability to decrypt all currently secure communications and data in transit.

Despite a federal mandate requiring post-quantum migration by 2027, most SMMs have not begun to prepare. An estimated 20 billion devices will need cryptographic upgrades, yet many SMMs lack the necessary resources, cybersecurity maturity, and trained workforce to counter “harvest now, decrypt later” attacks. According to the CYMANII Cybersecurity Manufacturing Roadmap, digital transformation has improved productivity across the manufacturing sector while simultaneously increasing exposure to cyber threats. Vulnerabilities now extend across the entire digital thread—from embedded sensors and production lines to cloud-based ERP platforms and interconnected supplier networks.

The white paper underscores the urgent demand for affordable, scalable, and quantum-resistant cybersecurity solutions tailored to the needs of SMMs. Unique vulnerabilities introduced by quantum computing are examined, including the collapse of RSA and ECC encryption, the inherent weaknesses of legacy systems, and the challenges of securing interoperability across complex supply chains.

Key recommendations from national cybersecurity initiatives and defense industrial base strategies—such as those outlined by the Department of Defense (DoD) and the National Defense Industrial Strategy (NDIS)—emphasize the critical role of small and non-traditional manufacturers in broader modernization efforts.

The solution is Isidore Quantum® (Isidore), a CNSA 2.0-compliant, plug-and-play encryption platform engineered by Forward Edge-AI in partnership with the National Security Agency (NSA). Designed to operate in zero-trust architectures and seamlessly integrate into legacy environments, Isidore autonomously manages key exchange, channel security, and anomaly detection using AI-powered rule engines. Its protocol-, device-, and network-agnostic design enables rapid deployment across manufacturing scenarios, including encrypted machine-to-machine communications, wireless mesh networks, SCADA, and remote telemetry.

Isidore provides a direct and cost-effective pathway for SMMs to meet post-quantum cryptographic requirements, eliminate reliance on PKI, and maintain business continuity across connected operations. The device supports mesh topologies with individually keyed nodes, ensuring resilience even when nodes are compromised—an advantage not found in traditional group key systems. With no forensic footprint, automated rekeying, and compatibility with legacy PLCs, Isidore is the only field-ready quantum-resistant encryption platform built for the dynamic needs of American manufacturing.

The time to act is now. As this white paper will show, the U.S. cannot afford to leave its industrial base—especially its small and medium manufacturers—exposed to the coming wave of quantum-enabled cyberattacks. Adopting Isidore as a foundational security control not only hardens critical infrastructure but ensures the survival and competitiveness of America’s manufacturing future.

“Quantum computers won’t knock at the door—they’ll slip in unnoticed, unraveling your encrypted data, intellectual property, and supply chains in seconds. Waiting to act ensures not resilience, but ruin.”

Problem: A Widening Attack Surface for America’s Manufacturers

SMMs account for 98.6% of manufacturing establishments in the U.S., employing nearly 8 million workers and producing over $1.9 trillion in output annually. Despite their scale, SMMs remain disproportionately vulnerable to cyberattacks, lacking the cybersecurity maturity, budgets, and personnel found in large OEMs.

The transition to Industry 4.0—including IIoT, remote sensors, cloud-based ERP, and AI-augmented supply chains—has vastly expanded the digital attack surface across industrial environments. Every new endpoint introduces additional risk. Yet, most SMMs operate legacy control systems built before cybersecurity was a design priority, and many lack a formal CISO or in-house cyber staff.

While some SMMs have adopted patchwork firewalls and VPNs, few are equipped to withstand advanced persistent threats (APTs) or anticipate post-quantum decryption scenarios. Compounding the issue is the fact that over 70% of manufacturers report inadequate visibility into their own OT and IT networks (Mission Secure, 2024). Meanwhile, a Cybersecurity Ventures study predicts that manufacturing will incur $10.5 trillion in cybercrime damages globally by 2025, with much of that burden falling on small operators.

Cyber Threat Landscape: Harvest Now, Decrypt Later (HNDL) Is Already Underway

APT actors—particularly nation-state adversaries such as China and Russia—have begun executing “Harvest Now, Decrypt Later” campaigns. These actors are scraping encrypted industrial data with the expectation that quantum computers capable of breaking RSA-2048 and ECC-384 will be operational by 2030, or sooner.

The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) estimates over 20 billion devices in the U.S. will require cryptographic migration to resist quantum decryption. For SMMs, this transition is daunting: it requires re-architecting secure communications, key exchanges, and device identity mechanisms—all while continuing production.

Moreover, the manufacturing sector has been the #1 target for cyberattacks for three consecutive years (IBM X-Force Threat Intelligence Index, 2024). Breaches in this sector often lead to:

•IP theft (e.g., CAD files, production tolerances, formulas)

•Operational disruption (ransomware-induced downtime)

•Supply chain poisoning or firmware manipulation

Representative Use Cases for Quantum-Resilient Encryption in Manufacturing

The Solution

Isidore from Forward Edge-AI provides a turn-key, scalable solution specifically engineered for the needs of SMMs. Compact and lightweight, the device offers Commercial National Security Algorithm (CNSA) Suite 2.0-compliant encryption—including CRYSTALS-Kyber and CRYSTALS-Dilithium—ensuring data-in-transit remains secure even against quantum-enabled decryption. Designed to integrate seamlessly into legacy OT environments, Isidore eliminates the complexity of PKI and certificate management by autonomously managing keys and secure channels. Its protocol-, network-, and device-agnostic design enables rapid deployment across a wide range of use cases, from securing remote PLCs and SCADA telemetry to encrypting mobile IoT devices and cloud ERP traffic. A built-in AI engine provides real-time anomaly detection and automatic recovery, further reducing administrative overhead and breach response times.

What sets Isidore apart is its zero-trust native architecture, plug-and-play installation, and operational resilience. Unlike conventional cryptographic systems that require significant IT expertise and multi-month deployment schedules, Isidore can be operational in under 90 minutes and scaled across mesh or hub-and-spoke topologies with minimal configuration. It offers up to 60% lower total cost of ownership and delivers ROI within the first year of deployment by dramatically reducing downtime, key management labor, and breach exposure. For SMMs seeking to future-proof their operations, maintain NIST and DoD compliance, and remain competitive in a post-quantum world, Isidore delivers a decisive and immediate advantage.

Technical Architecture of Isidore

Core Capabilities:

•CNSA 2.0-Compliant: CRYSTALS-Kyber (Key Encapsulation), CRYSTALS-Dilithium (Digital Signatures), AES-256 (Symmetric Encryption), SHA-384/512

•Zero-Trust Native: Every connection is independently authenticated; no implicit trust within the network

•Autonomous Key Management: Automated ephemeral key generation, recovery, zeroization

•Topology Support: Mesh, hub-and-spoke, point-to-point, VLAN-aware segmentation

Physical Attributes:

•Size: 170 x 100 x 26 mm | Weight: 350g

•Power: 10W | Throughput: 500 Mbps with ongoing development to support 100 Gbps using COTS parts

Security Hardening Features:

•No forensic footprint

•Randomized “black traffic” for anonymization

•Machine learning-driven anomaly detection + self-healing cyber immune response

•Integration time: < 2 hours with plug-and-play APIs

Economic Impact of a Breach vs. ROI of Isidore Deployment

Cost of a Breach in Manufacturing

According to IBM’s 2024 Cost of a Data Breach Report:

•Average breach cost for SMMs: $4.65M

•Average downtime per incident: 21 days

•Downtime revenue loss: $58,000–$200,000/day

•IP loss cost (est.): $750,000–$2.5M

•Ransom demand range: $250,000–$5M

Isidore also provides small and medium-sized manufacturers with a streamlined, cost-effective solution to meet Cybersecurity Maturity Model Certification (CMMC) requirements by embedding Zero Trust security and quantum-resistant encryption directly into their existing infrastructure. Its architecture enforces explicit authentication, continuous monitoring, and real-time threat response—eliminating implicit trust and securing controlled unclassified information (CUI) at rest and in transit. With rapid deployment, minimal disruption to operations, and compliance across key CMMC Level 2 and 3 domains, Isidore empowers manufacturers to maintain contract eligibility, protect national defense supply chains, and stay ahead of both current and emerging cyber threats.

Isidore ROI Metrics:

ROI Timeline:

Isidore systems typically pay for themselves within 10–14 months based on avoided breach costs, reduced admin burden, and insurance premium discounts for quantum-compliance.

Case Study: Cyberattack on Norsk Hydro – Quantum Threat Extrapolation and Isidore Response

Overview of the Attack (Based on Open-Source Intelligence)

In March 2019, Norsk Hydro—a global aluminum producer operating over 35,000 employees across 40 countries—suffered a crippling ransomware attack attributed to the LockerGoga malware. The malware penetrated Hydro’s IT network through compromised user credentials, encrypting core business systems including file servers, email platforms, and production planning software. The attack forced the company into manual operations at multiple smelting plants, leading to complete shutdowns in some divisions. Norsk Hydro publicly reported estimated damages exceeding $75 million, driven by production downtime, forensic recovery, and system rebuilds. The company's manufacturing units lacked segmentation between IT and OT systems, allowing the malware to move laterally across its network. Recovery took months.

Had Isidore been deployed across Norsk Hydro’s network, the lateral propagation of the attack could have been halted at several critical junctures. Isidore’s zero-trust architecture enforces strict channel-specific encryption and continuous authentication, isolating compromised devices before malware spreads. Moreover, its autonomous key management and ephemeral channel creation would have prevented the reuse or replay of stolen credentials—LockerGoga’s primary access vector. Isidore also provides AI-powered anomaly detection capable of identifying unauthorized command sequences or behavioral deviations within OT networks, triggering automated zeroization or rekeying procedures before data exfiltration or payload execution occurs. With Isidore deployed on OT gateways and cloud interfaces, Norsk Hydro could have preserved uptime in critical facilities while recovering business systems in parallel, reducing overall financial and operational disruption.

¹ Information regarding the Norsk Hydro cyberattack is based on publicly available open-source reporting. The case study is provided for illustrative purposes only and does not imply any affiliation with or endorsement of Isidore by Norsk Hydro.

Extrapolating to a Quantum-Computer Enabled Threat

LockerGoga and similar malware strains are evolving to exploit encrypted environments. In a quantum-enabled threat landscape—where nation-state actors possess CRQCs—traditional RSA- and ECC-based VPNs, PKI systems, and certificate authorities would be compromised within minutes or hours. Attackers would not need stolen credentials; they could decrypt encrypted traffic in real-time, revealing system architecture, IP, and access tokens in transit. In this case, Norsk Hydro’s encrypted backup files, VPN tunnels, and federated authentication systems would all become instantly vulnerable.

Isidore’s architecture is designed to prevent exactly this type of collapse. Its encryption is based on CRYSTALS-Kyber and CRYSTALS-Dilithium, both selected by NIST as part of the post-quantum cryptography standard due to their resilience against quantum decryption algorithms like Shor’s. Its lack of dependency on certificate authorities or asymmetric key exchange protocols means that even in the presence of a quantum-capable adversary, Isidore’s channels remain secure, non-reproducible, and immune to historical traffic replay attacks. Furthermore, its real-time rekeying and lack of forensic trace prevent adversaries from harvesting useful information, even after a successful system breach.

Conclusion: Quantum Preparedness as a Competitive Advantage

The Norsk Hydro breach serves as a cautionary tale for every SMM with interconnected IT/OT environments. A post-quantum world renders existing cryptographic defenses obsolete, turning encrypted supply chains into open books for adversaries. By deploying Isidore, manufacturers can proactively harden their operations against both present and future threat models—without requiring wholesale replacement of legacy equipment. Isidore offers not only operational resilience but also strategic assurance: securing IP, ensuring business continuity, and maintaining regulatory compliance in the face of a rapidly advancing quantum threat.

In a world where encryption can be broken in hours, Isidore ensures your business doesn't fall in minutes.

Example Use Case: Isidore-Augmented Digital Twin for Secure Smart Manufacturing

Definition:

•Digital Twin (DT): A real-time, virtual representation of a physical system that simulates operations, predicts outcomes, and supports decision-making using sensor data and historical models.

•Deep Learning Cyber-Physical System (DL-CPS): An integrated environment where physical manufacturing systems interact with cloud-based deep learning models to automate security monitoring, threat detection, and operational optimization.

Scenario: Securing a Sheet Metal Fabrication Line

A small, defense-focused sheet metal fabrication facility has implemented a cutting-edge digital transformation strategy by integrating a Digital Twin (DT) into its core manufacturing operations. This DT mirrors the real-time status of CNC machines and connected IoT sensors, offering a synchronized virtual environment where operators can observe performance metrics such as temperature, torque, and vibration in near real-time. The DT also ingests command inputs from the facility’s Manufacturing Execution System (MES), enabling a dynamic feedback loop between the physical shop floor and its virtual representation.

To enhance operational insight and responsiveness, the facility’s Digital Twin is powered by a deep learning model designed to analyze vast telemetry datasets. This model learns the normal patterns of machine behavior and detects subtle deviations that could indicate early signs of system degradation, inefficiency, or cyber-physical tampering. As a result, the system provides predictive maintenance recommendations and optimizes production throughput, reducing unplanned downtime and improving quality control across the fabrication line.

By leveraging the synergy between cyber-physical systems and deep learning, the facility positions itself as a resilient and agile contributor to national defense supply chains. The deployment of this advanced infrastructure not only supports continuous improvement but also reinforces compliance with evolving cybersecurity and quality standards. The integration of Digital Twin technology establishes a foundation for smarter, more secure, and more efficient manufacturing operations.

Threat Vector

An APT actor targets the network to inject malicious firmware into a PLC, intending to degrade weld strength undetected.

Implementation of Isidore

Isidore is deployed as a compact, credit card–sized device across critical points in a manufacturing environment to secure operational technology (OT) systems. The device is installed at the edge of the OT network, between the Manufacturing Execution System (MES) and cloud-hosted Digital Twin (DT), and on mobile maintenance tablets connected via Wi-Fi. Strategically placed inline with programmable logic controllers (PLCs) and SCADA components, Isidore provides a non-disruptive, scalable defense layer for both legacy and modern industrial systems.

The device ensures cyber-resilient communication through quantum-resistant encryption protocols, leveraging CNSA 2.0 standards with CRYSTALS-Kyber and AES-256. Unlike traditional Public Key Infrastructure (PKI) systems, Isidore establishes zero-trust, peer-to-peer key exchanges using ephemeral keys—eliminating the need for certificate authorities. This architecture not only reduces risk but also simplifies key management while maintaining cryptographic integrity against both classical and quantum-enabled adversaries.

Example Use Case: Isidore-Augmented Digital Twin for Secure Smart Manufacturing

Integration into a DL-CPS enables Isidore to stream secure, real-time inference data from physical assets into Azure-hosted DT environments. Embedded Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) and Physics-Based Models (PBMs) analyze this telemetry to detect anomalies. When threats are detected—such as rogue firmware injections—Isidore initiates an immune system–like response, auto-quarantining compromised channels, restoring secure baselines, and preserving operational continuity without human intervention.

To enhance threat anticipation and adaptive defense, the DT system would incorporate AGENTIC modules that train deep reinforcement learning (DRL) agents. These agents use synthetic and real-world attack simulations to identify root-cause vulnerabilities, model adversarial behaviors, and generate proactive security policies. This capability ensures the system not only reacts but evolves to counter sophisticated cyber threats across varying environments and mission profiles.

The synergy between Isidore and the digital twin framework unlocks advanced cybersecurity analytics. When an incident is detected, the digital twin can replay the event in a cyber range sandbox and simulate corrective actions, such as firmware rollback or altered process parameters. Isidore feeds alerts and threat intelligence into a swarm-secure framework, enabling other facilities in the network to benefit from shared cybersecurity learnings. This collective intelligence significantly increases resilience across the manufacturing enterprise while maintaining compliance with emerging cybersecurity mandates.

Implementation Timeline

Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Return on Investment (ROI)

Conclusion: Urgency, Survival, and Competitive Edge in the Post-Quantum Era

America’s small and medium-sized manufacturers (SMMs) sit at the crossroads of innovation and annihilation. As the backbone of the U.S. industrial base, they are responsible for nearly $2 trillion in economic output—yet they remain the most exposed to cyber-physical threats driven by legacy infrastructure, lack of cyber expertise, and fragmented security tools. The emergence of CRQCs will render current encryption methods obsolete—exposing everything from SCADA systems to intellectual property and supply chain telemetry to near-instantaneous decryption by adversaries.

The federal government has set a post-quantum compliance deadline of 2027, but most SMMs have yet to take any meaningful steps toward quantum-readiness. Meanwhile, HNDL attacks are already underway, meaning that critical industrial data stolen today can and will be decrypted tomorrow.

Isidore offers a field-tested, CNSA 2.0-compliant, AI-powered, and plug-and-play encryption solution that allows SMMs to rapidly secure their digital operations—without needing to rip and replace existing systems. It delivers measurable ROI within the first year, while preserving business continuity, minimizing downtime, and fortifying operations against both current and quantum-era threats.

Strategic Recommendations for SMMs

1. Begin Quantum Migration Immediately

•Treat post-quantum migration as a business imperative, not a compliance checkbox.

•Designate a quantum-readiness officer or assign responsibility to the COO or CIO.

•Deploy Isidore devices on critical OT gateways, SCADA nodes, remote telemetry links, and mobile maintenance devices within the next 6–12 months.

2. Eliminate Dependence on PKI and VPNs

•Replace vulnerable public-key infrastructure (PKI), RSA/ECC-based VPNs, and static credential systems with Isidore’s AI-managed ephemeral key exchange and zero-trust architecture.

•This eliminates credential harvesting and session replay risks from both classical and quantum adversaries.

3. Secure the Digital Thread End-to-End

•Extend Isidore’s protection to the full digital supply chain—from embedded IoT sensors and programmable logic controllers (PLCs) to cloud-based ERP systems and digital twins.

•Ensure telemetry and command streams between MES, cloud environments, and AI models are encrypted and authenticated with quantum-resistant protocols.

4. Build Collective Resilience through Swarm Defense

•Join secure Isidore-enabled manufacturing coalitions that share real-time cyber threat intelligence.

•Leverage anomaly detection alerts and immune-response updates across peer facilities to build a sector-wide defense posture.

5. Align with Federal Funding and Procurement Incentives

•Pursue DoD, NIST, and DHS programs that fund post-quantum and critical infrastructure protection for SMMs.

•Document Isidore integration for NIST SP 800-208 compliance and position your facility for defense contracting opportunities requiring quantum resilience.

Waiting until 2027 is not a strategy—it’s a surrender. The time to act is now.

Isidore was invented by the NSA and licensed to Forward Edge-AI to improve and manufacture. The Isidore device is compliant with CNSA 2.0 and offers a robust solution to the challenges discussed here.

Isidore incorporates CNSA 2.0-approved algorithms, such as CRYSTALS-Kyber for key encapsulation and CRYSTALS-Dilithium for digital signatures. A notable feature of Isidore is its autonomous key and channel management system. This system facilitates periodic rekeying, key recovery, and zeroization without manual intervention, ensuring continuous security and reducing the risk of key compromise. Such automation is crucial for maintaining secure communications in dynamic and high-risk environments.

Isidore also operates on a zero-trust model, meaning it does not inherently trust any device or user, regardless of their location within the network. This approach ensures that every access request is authenticated and authorized, minimizing the risk of unauthorized access and lateral movement by potential adversaries.

Designed to be protocol, device, and network agnostic, Isidore can be integrated into existing critical infrastructure without significant modifications. Its plug-and-play design allows for rapid deployment, enabling organizations to enhance their security posture promptly in response to evolving quantum threats.

Isidore also incorporates a highly performant Rules Engine to detect and address known threats, and Machine Learning algorithms to learn the patterns of daily life, detect anomalies that may signal a novel attack, execute a cyber-immune response, and recover stronger because it has learned from the previous attack.

By deploying Isidore devices, organizations can proactively, and cost effectively harden their critical infrastructure against the anticipated capabilities of quantum computers. This forward-looking approach addresses current security challenges while ensuring resilience against future quantum advancements, safeguarding essential services and national security interests.

About

Founded in 2019, Forward Edge-AI, Inc. delivers compelling mass market solutions at the forward and humanitarian edge to enhance the safety and security of the free world. Forward Edge-AI

We partner with our clients throughout their journey to transform how they do business, address the complexities of technology choices, and deliver results fast. Our services include data modernization, integration, and engineering, designed to supercharge data workflows for maximum efficiency, security, and insights.

Contact: Brandon@Forwardedge-ai

Appendix

1.CYMANII. 2022. Cybersecurity Manufacturing Roadmap 2022: Public Version. Cybersecurity Manufacturing Innovation Institute. https://cymanii.org.

2.Department of Defense. 2023. National Defense Industrial Strategy. Washington, DC: Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment. https://www.cto.mil/ndis.

3.Forward Edge-AI, Inc. 2025. Securing Critical Infrastructure with Quantum-Resistant Cryptography. San Antonio, TX: Forward Edge-AI. https://forwardedge.ai/product.

4.IBM Security. 2024. Cost of a Data Breach Report 2024. Armonk, NY: IBM Corporation. https://www.ibm.com/reports/data-breach.

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6.National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). 2022. Migration to Post-Quantum Cryptography (SP 800-208). Gaithersburg, MD: U.S. Department of Commerce. https://csrc.nist.gov/publications/detail/sp/800-208/final.

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8.U.S. Department of Defense. 2018. Assessing and Strengthening the Manufacturing and Defense Industrial Base and Supply Chain Resiliency of the United States: Report to President Donald J. Trump by the Interagency Task Force in Fulfillment of Executive Order 13806. https://media.defense.gov/2018/Oct/05/2002048904.

9.World Economic Forum. 2024. “Manufacturers Face Growing Cyber Threats – It’s Time to Build a Cyber Resilience Culture.” Accessed June 5, 2025. https://www.weforum.org/stories/2024/06/manufacturers-face-cyber-threats-cyber-resilience-culture.

10.Cyber Magazine. 2024. “Why Industry 4.0 Is Increasing Manufacturing Cyber Attacks.” Accessed June 5, 2025. https://cybermagazine.com/articles/why-industry-4-0-is-increasing-manufacturing-cyber-attacks

11.Greenberg, Andy. 2019. “Inside the Cyberattack That Shocked the US Government.” WIRED, March 19, 2019. https://www.wired.com/story/norsk-hydro-cyberattack-lockergoga/.

12.Scott, Mark. 2019. “A Cyberattack Has Disrupted Norway’s Hydro, One of the World’s Largest Aluminum Producers.” The New York Times, March 19, 2019. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/19/business/norsk-hydro-cyberattack.html.

13.Gallagher, Sean. 2019. “Norsk Hydro Recovering from Extensive LockerGoga Ransomware Attack.” Ars Technica, March 21, 2019. https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2019/03/norsk-hydro-recovering-from-extensive-lockergoga-ransomware-attack/.

14.McMillan, Robert. 2019. “Hackers Hit Aluminum Giant Norsk Hydro With Ransomware.” The Wall Street Journal, March 19, 2019. https://www.wsj.com/articles/hackers-hit-aluminum-giant-norsk-hydro-with-ransomware-11552966416.

15.Norsk Hydro ASA. 2019. “Cyber Attack Update.” Press Release, March 20, 2019. https://www.hydro.com/en/media/news/2019/cyber-attack-update/.